Danger Looms for Cape Town.
Unless you understand mathematics, this is going to sound like Neville Shute's - On the Beach.
First the good news. As I pointed out in my last bulletin, the SA authorites have reset the origin to 27 march. Notice we no longer talk about that "miracle hook" in fact it is now obvious to even the most positive Capetonians that, in the outbreak areas, the lock down is not working. The good news is that some Provinces have worked and the regulations are now tightening up provincial borders , too late, but at least we have begun. The executive ARE getting the idea of compartments. We have a model for the release from the lock down, too complicated, but it is a start. ,
Now the bad news. The SIR style epidemiologists have still not understood the veracity of the infection vector. If you have taken the time to study the Dengue model, you will see that the infection vector (misquitos in Dengue) is driven by the "essential workers" in COVID. Rather than fearing for their lives or at least appreciating that they are risking the lives of others, essential workers enjoy the status of being essential and the income priveleges that come with that status. While their wages depend on not understanding this logic, they will never get what I am talking about. By the time that our leaders (they are essential themselves) figure out that they are themselves, the infection vector that causes the spread, it will be too late.
Bulletin 30 April 2020 - bulletin30apr.pdf